New RESEARCH

The 2026 Gulf War and the Global Helium Market

A 52-page research report by Johan Rode, CFA - Little Square Capital

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    The helium market's structural fragility was exposed by the 2026 Gulf conflict. This report tells you what is temporary, what is permanent, and where pricing power actually sits.

    Johan Rode, CFA

    London, UK

    What's it all about:

    The report covers the supply picture, logistics dimension, helium demand outlook, pricing architecture, and five structural shifts that will not reverse regardless of when the Strait reopens.

    Inside the full report:

    The supply mathematics - capacity addition tables, the 309 MMcf/year structural loss, and the alternative supply activation modelled in detail

    The Architecture of Enclosure (1507–2026) - five centuries of Gulf resource control traced from the Portuguese cartaz through the Red Line Agreement, Mossadegh's logistics blockade, the SWIFT disconnection, and the 2026 US naval declaration.

    Semiconductor manufacturer disclosures - TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix recycling rates, wafer growth projections, and net demand growth calculated from disclosed data.

    Qatar: The Helium Anchor - the geological pressure differential, the 1995 coup and its commercial consequences, the pre-crisis offtake strategy, and the post-crisis recovery timeline across bull/base/bear scenarios.

    The bifurcated market - who can buy Russian helium, at what price, and under what compliance constraints.